How Many Molehills Make A Mountain?

Dolomites in autumn image courtesy pixabay.com/kordi_vahle
The GM puts a problem in front of the PCs – a couple of thugs extorting the locals. The players come up with a plan to solve the problem which works perfectly. The public shower the PCs with rewards and gratification.
Sounds pretty boring to me. Where’s the challenge? Where’s the adventure?
Roadblocks, Tripwires, Deceptions, Mistakes, Obstacles, Complications, Plot Twists, and Conundrums are absolutely vital to making an RPG interesting for participants. Scriptwriters use the general term “setbacks”, which is as good a choice as any.
How big should a setback be?
Minimum setback: one molehill
The GM puts a problem in front of the PCs – a couple of thugs extorting the locals. The players come up with a plan which works perfectly until one of the thugs grease the floor in front of the PCs. The PCs make a couple of DEX rolls to keep their footing, finish executing their plan, and run the thugs out of town. The public shower the PCs with rewards and gratification.
This is a molehill. It doesn’t do anything more than briefly inconvenience those confronted by it. This establishes a minimum scale for problems.
Maximum setback: the nuclear option
The GM puts a problem in front of the PCs – a couple of thugs extorting the locals. The players come up with a plan. The GM detonates a nuclear weapon, killing everyone. The plan fails because there is no-one left to complete it.
Sounds like quite a setback, doesn’t it?
Setting aside any problems with verisimilitude for the moment, this blatantly ridiculous example establishes a logical maximum for setbacks: the greatest possible setback that should be presented to the PCs is one that they can do something about, however difficult that might be, and that leaves the door open for further attempts or solutions if the first attempt fails.
You can even argue that the more remote the chance of success, the more scope should be left for other solutions because the PCs are more likely to need that scope.
Other Setback Constraints
There are other constraints that we should routinely apply in selecting a constraint beyond excluding those that are too easy and those that are too difficult. As a general rule:
- players must either already possess, or be able to acquire, any tools or knowledge required to overcome the setback.
- setbacks must be rational in terms of the established genre.
- setbacks must be rational in terms of the established circumstances and relevant background.
- setbacks must be discernible with sufficient game time for a solution to be implemented.
- setbacks should be novel in some respect, or at least, not used recently.
When most GMs start out, the setbacks they choose are generally semi-random, consequences of the in-game situation, often taking advantage of errors or failures by the PCs. Call them “targets of opportunity”. Regardless of how difficult they may be to overcome, these setbacks are trivial in plot terms.
With a little more expertise, GMs start designing setbacks directly into the adventures. This is easy when the ultimate problem to be overcome is not the same as the problem initially presented to the PCs. The setbacks are no longer plot-trivial, and the fact of the setback often has ramifications and repercussions in future adventures.
A little more experience permits GMs to begin using setbacks for their impact on the overall plotline of the campaign, both having the setback derive from circumstances deliberately engineered to create the setback, and having the fact of the setback expose or develop another plot threat and a larger-scale problem for the PCs to solve. Because these setbacks can, to some extent, be foreseeable – even inevitable – if you know the whole of the campaign background and present circumstances, smart players can sometimes anticipate them and prepare accordingly.
The progression described is clearly one of embedding complications and potential solutions more deeply into the campaign’s foundations, and of that permitting both greater scope for story-telling and greater depths of interaction between campaign and participants.
Of course, it’s possible to get even more convoluted in your plotting.
The current phase of my Zenith-3 campaign is coming to a close, having established the broader campaign background, setting, and context, having presented the players with a set of problems that have been solved, one by one, the cumulative effect of which have been to set the stage for a whole new set of problems and setbacks. The whole purpose of Phase I is to get the campaign established and ready for Phase II. Phase II will lead to Phase III, and so on.
Phase VI (or is it VII?) brings together plot elements and consequences from all the previous stages of the campaign in an epic confrontation for the fate of their universe. Subsequent phases are brief post-scripts to deal with consequences and fall-out – as far as I can anticipate it.
While I can discern the broad shape of future phases at this point, many details and specifics derive from PC successes and failures, choices and strategies, that have yet to occur. Some of these are binary options – a phase could be X or it could be Y, but it will inevitably be some variation on one of them. The campaign setting continues to evolve as adventure outcomes accumulate within the campaign background.
Another way to look at all this is – I’ve built certain plot landmines and signposts into the background, but can’t fully predict when the players will stumble over one of them.
To some extent, once your thinking shifts to this new paradigm of seeing and thinking about setbacks in terms of their campaign impact, you can never go back again. You are no longer running on instinct alone, but have engaged the PCs in a battle of wits – them against the campaign’s capacity to give them grief. This is often mischaracterized as a Player vs the GM conflict; it’s not, because the GM is a completely neutral participant whose only objective is to involve the players in interesting situations and plotlines that are, or can become, within the scope of their character’s abilities to resolve.
A hierarchy of setback scale
In both examples considered above, another subtle point can be sometimes overlooked. It’s not enough to think about setbacks in terms of plot alone. You have to be continually aware of the solutions required and of the PCs capabilities to satisfy those requirements.
It’s possible to define a scale of setback in terms of the degree of challenge they offer the PCs – from those that require nothing more than a successful die roll to those that require the acquisition of specific skills or knowledge to those that require the achievement of a specific intermediate position in a plot context before a solution to the larger problem can be even contemplated.
The advancing of power levels
The problem that needs continual solution by the GM is selecting a setback of appropriate scope and challenge to keep the players interested. This is one of the most difficult judgments a GM faces, because the goal posts keep moving as PCs advance in power level.
If the PCs are first level, the addition of a third thug of moderate expertise – say, 5th level – is something akin to the nuclear option. If the PCs are high-level – say, 15th level or higher – the addition of a 5th level thug is necessary to even make the confrontation a minor molehill.
A microcosm of the problem can be appreciated by considering the differential between favored save progressions and normal save progressions in Pathfinder/3.x. There are several other ways of achieving the same end, but they all tell the same story regardless of game system.
At low levels, disregarding magical assistance, feats, and class abilities, there isn’t a lot of difference in terms of the likelihood of success. Assuming an initial stat modifier of 1, a good save at first level is 3/- on d20 (15%), while a normal save is 1/- (5%). This initially seems like a lot – the chance of success has tripled – but a more accurate measure is the chance of failure, which is a ratio of 85% to 95%, or 0.895.
At 6th level, with the same stat modifier, a good save is up to 6/- (30%) and a normal is up to 3/- (15%). The chances of failure are 70% to 85%, a ratio of 0.8235. Even though the chance of success on a good save has only doubled, while that of a regular save has tripled, comparing these ratios shows that the change in the good save is more significant than that of the regular save.
At 18th level, with the same stat modifier, a good save is up to 12/- (60%) (double) and a normal one is up to 35% (slightly more than double). The character is more likely to make a good save than to fail one. The ratio of failure chances is 40% to 65%, or 0.615. You only need to glance at this result relative to the previous ones to see that whatever effect it describes has not only continued, it has accelerated.
But this simple picture is so improbable as to defy belief, let alone real world applicability. A character class’s favored save is favored for a reason. That reason usually implies that the character class will receive other class-specific benefits, over and above those of a “generic” character, from a high value in the stat on which a favored save is based. That’s not always the case, but it’s usually so.
That has two effects: it means that the favored save is more likely to have a higher stat bonus than a normal one, and that the character is more likely to invest their potential for improvement – feats, magic, and stat increases – toward improving that stat bonus (instead of another). Taking a guesstimate of these impacts into account makes a big difference. At first level, only the higher stat bonus is relevant – let’s call that an additional +2 (it could be more). At 6th level, +1 more than that seems reasonable. By the time a character hits 18th level, it would not be difficult to add another +4 to that incremental mark.
At first level, that makes the favored save 5/-, the chance of failure 75%, and the ratio favored-to-normal 0.789. It would take about 10 character levels to achieve this improvement in ratio through advancement alone (guesstimated).
At 6th level, the favored save is 9/-, and the chance of failure 55%. This gives a ratio favored-to-normal of 0.647 – not that far removed from the ratio at 18th level.
And at 18th level, the favored save is 19/-, the chance of failure a mere 5%, and the ratio is 0.077.
These numbers speak volumes to me, but not everyone is so mathematically-inclined.
To put them in context for most people, I need to describe them another way.
The mathematics of second chances
If you have a 10% chance of success at something, and will be given a second chance if you fail, the chance of success is 10% + 10%x90% = 19%. In such cases, it’s often easier, mathematically, to look at the chance of failure: 90% of 90% = 81%, so the net chance of success is 19%.
It’s when you start examining third chances and so on that things get more complicated following the “chance of success” route, because you have to track every possible way that you can succeed and assess each of them. The chance of failure is easier because you just have to keep multiplying by 90% until you run out of chances.
Third attempt: 72.9% chance of failure, so 27.1% chance of success.
Fourth attempt: 65.61% chance of failure, so 34.39% chance of success.
Fifth attempt: 59.049% chance of failure, so 40.951% chance of success.
…and so on.
Mathematically, that progression can be described as PT = 1 – (1 – PS)^N, where N is the number of chances PS is the chance of success on a single attempt, and PT is the total chance of success. Or, even simpler, TF = PF^N, where TF is the total chance of failing at all attempts, PF is the chance of failing at a single attempt, and N is the number of attempts you can make.
This is especially useful when some of the rules of logarithms are applied, which is what you have to do when you want to go from PT (or TF) to N:
N = log (TF) / log (PF) (probabilities in decimals, NOT percentages).
That means that I can “index” the relative improvement in chance of success or failure relative to some arbitrary standard.
The obvious standard in our case is the lowest chance of success, 5%. If you only had a 5% chance each time, how many chances does the highest total chance (95%) represent?
The answer, it turns out, is, 58. That’s as good an answer to the rhetorical question in the title of this article as you’re going to get.
Another way of looking at this answer is that a setback that rates as almost-impossible-to-overcome to the first-level character is only one-58th that size to the 18th-level character.
Two Philosophies Of Setbacks
There are two core philosophies to dealing with setbacks, and – to some extent – every GM drinks somewhat from both wells.
The first argues that there is a threshold of attention beneath which any problems should be ignored as trivial.
The second states that there can be a cumulative effect of many small problems, a synergizing that makes them, in compound, greater than the sum of their parts.
One task that highlights both philosophies is the setting up of camp at the end of a day’s adventuring. For first level, it’s entirely justifiable to make a big deal of this – everything from who’s turn it is to do the cooking to who’s on watch to having trouble getting tent pegs to “stick” are problems to be solved.
By the time characters are 6th level, you only need to mention the camp routine when something significant disrupts it. It’s more a matter of “this is what your character is doing, when….” – what was a mountain of note is now a molehill used only for background and context.
But there is also the line of thought that says such trivial problems should occasionally be mentioned for their verisimilitude value, even if they no longer represent substantial setbacks that need to be overcome.
The Practical Solution
When plotting an adventure, I try to make sure that every PC is given some kind of challenge or setback to overcome in the course of the day. Sometimes, players take so long that one PC may miss out, but that usually means that they get a double-dose of spotlight time the next session.
That problem can be minimized by inter-cutting from one plot sequence to another – if you have four PCs (A, B, C, and D), you might present problems to three of them (A, B, and C), then permit A to undertake a partial solution before interrupting to give D his problem, checking in with C, then back to A, who overcomes their personal setback, then to B, and so on.
Or, to put it another way, breaking each of these personal stories into smaller scenes and then arranging those scenes into a sequence that keeps the spotlight moving.
Any of these individual plot threads can then metastasize into the major group problem for the game session or lead into a larger plot. That’s what I call an iceberg plot thread – the problem, as originally presented to the player concerned, seems quite soluble and not especially distinguishable in terms of difficulty from the plot threads of the other PCs, but 9/10ths – or perhaps, if you prefer, 57/58ths – of the plot aren’t yet showing. Sometimes, the focal PC encounters additional complications and setbacks relative to those experienced by the other PCs, at other times, the satisfactory solution to their personal problem reveals something much larger that they can’t deal with alone.
Spontaneity and the risk of Unplanned Madness
While I tend to plan these things with great care, so long as you keep the general principles of what we’ve discussed in mind, there’s no need to do so. My personal finding is that I have more then enough to think about at the gaming table already, but others may feel differently. There are certainly benefits to spontaneity that can make this choice rewarding, just as there is a risk of unplanned madness and anarchy.
There is also a middle ground that may appeal to some, in which a general direction is planned in advance but the specifics are chosen from the options presented by the moment. Again speaking personally, I find this option to be more conducive to plot trains and plot holes than either of the alternatives.
Spontaneity also risks not being able to come up with a solution at the moment it’s needed. It avoids the danger of plot trains by replacing it with unreliability. Still, if you are sufficiently creative to avoid that danger, it can be a viable choice.
Pre-planning maximizes the danger of plot trains while minimizing the threat of not being able to come up with appropriate setbacks and challenges. You avoid that danger by actively and deliberately incorporating player choices and player-determined solutions to the problems that the PCs face. It places much greater emphasis on planning and prep, but if those can be accommodated, is the best solution.
How big is a setback?
Which brings me back to the rhetorical question posed in the title of this article, and the earlier thread of discussion – exactly how big should a setback be?
Much of the article has considered this from various perspectives, and shown that it’s not as straightforward as it might first appear. There are questions about second chances and about open-endedness that are critical to defining any specific answer. Only by generalizing and taking the whole question to a metagame level can any meaningful answer be derived.
A SINGLE setback should be no smaller than the minimum needed to function as a plot development and no larger than the maximum needed to create at least two viable alternative plot paths while minimizing the risk of completely unplanned plot outcomes.
Of course, you can utilize multiple setbacks and second chances, in combination, to manipulate plot trajectories on the larger scale. In effect, you are defining the initial conditions of the adventure (based, in part, on the outcomes and content of prior adventures); defining (in general terms) the outlines of one or more possible outcomes; and defining multiple paths between these start- and end-points, while leaving the specifics and the choice of which path to follow to the players.
The key-word that has been omitted from all the discussion to this point is anticipation.
Give the players one or more choices, know what the consequences of those choices are and how they will relate to the overall objective of the players, and the result is an adventure structure that rewards player participation, tolerates player inventiveness, rejects utterly the concept of plot trains, and yet still achieves the overall plot ambitions of the story-line.
Plot Maps
Plot Maps can be a useful tool for such planning. These are somewhat similar to a flowchart, which is a visual aid that most people can understand quickly and easily. A Plot map has three primary structural components:
- The narrative scene, which has no decision content and is usually a box shape;
- The choice scene, in which a decision is made between two or more outcomes which are described in narrative scenes and which is usually depicted as a diamond or a box with beveled edges; and
- the Consequential Narrative, which contains different narrative elements depending on an earlier choice. These contain content like second chances, or the consequences of decisions made much earlier in the game. I sometimes use a regular text box for these, and sometimes use a “tilted” box. I also sometimes use a color code and other times not – a lot depends on whether or not the map is something that I’m roughing out long-hand or is something that I expect to need to refer to, in-game.
Plot Maps always come in two parts – the map itself, and the key.

Beside this text, you can see an example plot map. The key that goes with this map would read something like:
• A1: Jonas meets Detective. The Problem.
• A2: Seek help or go it alone?
• A3: Go it alone – setback.
• A4: Resolve setback with a choice.
• A5a: Solution method 1. Consequences later in the adventure.
• A5b: Solution method 2. Consequences later in the adventure.
• B7: Jonas gets help from Harrow. Harrow cannot participate in B6; consequences later in the adventure.
• A6: Partial solution narrative.
• A7/A7a: Variations on balance of solution narrative – A7a with Harrow.
• A8: Solution presents a fresh problem.
Obviously, “Jonas” and “Harrow” are PCs, while the “Detective” is an NPC. Equally obviously, none of these scenes contains enough information to run the adventure from them; they aren’t even at the standard of a bullet-point outline. But they ARE a road-map to what you need to write in greater detail, and the map itself makes the relationship between two unrelated plotlines clear – those between PCs A and B, who I named Jonas and Harrow for the sake of example.
Between them, A5a and A5b are supposed to account for 100% of the consequences of A3, which in turn is an unknown percentage of the total ways this plotline could play out. Between them, though, A3 and B7 account for 100% of the choices.
Sometime later in the adventure, there will be another Choice Scene in which the players have no choice to make; instead, the road map will separate out one or more of A5a, A5b, or B7 when the consequences of the choices made here impact later in the adventure.
Of course, there are more than two solutions to any problem. The GM can anticipate the most likely ones, but can’t anticipate every possibility. By outlining the major alternatives, however, the GM gains the choice of which one most closely resembles the unshown “third choice”, permitting him to use that choice as the foundation of an improvised narrative.
For example, the player of PC B might be unsympathetic and prefer to continue with his own plot thread, believing that PC A is competent to solve his own problem. Thus PC A might choose B7 at A2, but PC B overrules that choice; after roleplaying the exchange between the two, the GM proceeds to ad-hoc a variant on A3, and the adventure is back on track.
At this point, it becomes relatively easy to approximate the difficulty of the setback. The initial problem has to be serious enough that PC A would consider interrupting whatever PC B has going on in his own plot thread, but not so serious that PC A can’t contemplate solving it on his own. The setback also has two possible outcomes, but isn’t serious enough that it forces PC A to rethink his decision not to involve PC B.
Mathematically, what works is for the setback to be about 2/3 the seriousness of the initial problem. And that, in turn, sets the initial decision (A2) as being about a 2/3 value – so there’s one chance in three that PC B will become involved.
Why those numbers? Because 2/3 of 2/3 is 4/9, which is extremely close to 50/50.
That means that the path A1-A2-A3-A4-A5a-A6-A7-A8 has a roughly 50% probability of occurring; path A1-A2-B7-A6-A7a-A8 has a roughly one in three chance of occurring; and the remaining path, through A5b, has the rest – roughly one in six. That assessment gives a guideline as to how much time the GM should spend on those options – bearing in mind how much they all have in common.
Being able to target the development of the adventure in this way is always useful; it means that most of your prep effort as a GM goes where it is going to be needed.
The net effect is of enabling you to have your plot “cake” and eat it too. You have structure where it’s useful, and spontaneity where you need it – but it’s structured spontaneity, improvising in the service of the bigger picture.
And 58 molehills make you a mountain.
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