When Good Dice Turn Bad: A Lesson In The Improbable
Have you ever had such a string of improbable events in a game session that you wondered if you would have been better off buying a lottery ticket? Something so unlikely that you thought witness testimony might be required every time you told the tale?
I have!
What do you do when your dice turn on you, luck being the fickle mistress that she is? Can you look back on the event years later with a smile and say that ‘at least today’s bad luck was not as bad’ as it had been on that legendary day of darkness?
Let me share just such a story with you – the tale of woe, what I learned from the event, and how it made me a better player and GM.
Stormy Waters in Seventh Sea
This story occurred about 3 years ago (in 2008) in a Seventh Sea campaign. The basic mechanics for this game are ‘roll a number of d10’s equal to Stat + skill, keep a number of them equal to the stat, and try and achieve or exceed a target number’. Players have the option of increasing the difficulty of the task before them in an attempt to succeed more dramatically – at the risk of achieving an even more spectacular failure.
Our group of intrepid swashbucklers were about to board a pirate ship in the middle of a storm. We had by this point been playing the campaign for a while so our characters were fairly powerful; this should have been a quick-but-fun skirmish that should have had us back in the tavern spinning tails and downing a few ales in short order – but the winds of fate on that particular day decided ‘no, that would be too easy’.
My first roll of the day was to Swing across to the other ship. For a skilled combatant, as my character was, activities like this should be so easy that it was a given. My luck had been running middling-to-excellent for months if not years, so perhaps there was a small element of overconfidence as well.
The first sign of trouble
Maintaining the flavour and style of the game, I opted to make the roll more difficult and show off a little. Heck, I was in the position of rolling 9 dice and keeping 6 of them, and I only needed to get a total of 15, from those six dice – I should have been able to do that with a sword in one hand and pint of brew in the other whilst holding the rope in my character’s teeth!
To my dismay all 9 dice came up ones – a critical failure in anyone’s book. The character flew face first into the mast on the other ship and landed unceremoniously on the deck in a heap.
Next was the roll to get up. Normally an automatic action, but as it was a wet deck in a storm the GM decided that it required a simple roll.
“I won’t get cocky this time,” I told myself; “I will just plain old stand up, and not make a show of it the way I usually do”.
Once again, roll 9 dice keep 6, against a target number of 10. And once again – you guessed it! – the dice came up all 1’s. It was official, luck had deserted me. The GM decided that I went for a bit of tumble after slipping over on the rain-slicked deck, so he rolled for direction and distance and the character and up tumbling into a mob of pirates like a bowling ball, all of us ending up tangled up in messy pile.
To cut a long story short
This kept up throughout the day. The GM was kind enough not to cause anything too terrible to happen to the character but a lot of embarrassment and humiliation was on the menu for the character. Eventually, we won the battle, but by its end I just wanted to curl up in a ball and hope the world would go away.
That day I rolled 235 d10’s. Of those rolls, 232 came up ones, and the 3 remaining rolls were twos.
I had never seen anything like it in my life. We had checked my dice for irregularities and sticky spots and whatever, tried swapping them out for other dice I had in my collection, and even tried rolling someone else’s dice! I’m sure I had better odds of winning the lottery and being hit by a twice by a truck all at the same time. (As a side note, I would be interested in knowing what the odds of such an occurrence would be).
Lessons Learned – As A Player
Now to get into the meat of what I am hoping to get across here, mainly what can a person learn from this unlikely cavalcade of events.
Perseverance. it sounds obvious but when everything seems to be going wrong and there is no relief in sight, sometimes you just have to keep trying to move forward.
Calmness and maturity. It is easy to let anger get to you blow up and throw a tantrum or two. Sometimes it is better to call a 5 -10 minute break, go grab a drink, get some fresh air, and look at the situation anew in a calmer state of mind. What can you do to get things back on track and get back in control of the situation? Mind you, at this point I was thinking “What can I do that does not involve rolling dice?”
Lessons Learned – As A GM
Looking at the situation from the GM’s point of view there was much to learn as well. The biggest lesson I took away from it in this regard was how to take an unusual and unlikely series of events and utilize them to improve the adventure.
I must say that my GM during this whilst enjoying it was a real sport and didn’t use this as a chance to lay in some boot leather whilst I was down. In fact, he took the reins and like a real pro used this freak occurrence to create an exciting and memorable battle out of something that would otherwise have disappeared into obscurity as just another skirmish.
Ultimately, we all play to have fun and it’s to no one’s advantage if a flow of bad luck sucks the fun out of the game. I am not saying ignore the dice or let only good things happen to the players, but even whilst enforcing a failure result the GM can interpret rolls in a way that still keeps proceedings exciting, interesting and fun.
On reflection
Looking back on the events, I find that I’m not upset by the story at all.
In fact I am quite happy about this dismal run of luck – something that seems to repeat itself every three or four months to a lesser extent. It made the game the game more interesting at the time, it made me a better player and GM, and it created an amusing memory for both myself and the others who were there to share in it.
It also helped the GM, who was having problems finding ways to challenge us and who usually spent more time bashing his head against the table while we accomplished the impossible. Instead he spent a large part of the session almost laughing himself to death and to this day still wears a smirk on his face when the anecdote gets brought up, usually at times when I’m rolling well.
Ultimately, I think this ramble of mine can be boiled down into this, you can always turn what should be a bad gaming session into something that is fun and exciting as well as a learning experience. You just have to look for the opportunities to do so.
Witness Statement
I was there on the day. The other players were laughing almost as hard as Ian M, the GM, was. Although initially upset and even angry, even Ian G began to see the funny side of events as improbability was stacked on unlikelihood to form a monument to the whims of chance. The rolls described by Ian were as he has reported them, above, both in number and in result. They were all rolled publicly, in fact after the first few they were the centre of attention for the entire table.
Nor is this the first time either of us have seen improbable results of a similar sort, though of lesser magnitude. I have seen a player roll 43 one-hundreds in a row on d-percentiles. Ian’s seen another player roll 40-odd d20s getting a 20 almost every time, interrupted by the occasional 19,18, or 17.
Mike Bourke
Ian M’s Reply
It is written, some days you are the windshield and some days you are the bug. That is pretty much what happened here.
Ian G’s runs of luck (and, in this instance, un-luck) could be more than amazing. But, I respectfully take issue with his saying that I bashed my head against the desk whenever this group managed the impossible. I distinctly recall only ever doing that a few ….well, maybe several …..OK, a number of times – and always as the result of Ian G’s character taking what should have been a straightforward roll for some minor activity like sneaking or diplomacy, and somehow generating near-Ghodlike results.
Still, he does say nice things about me, so I guess I’ll let that pass.
So, where does my GMing come into this? To start with, understand that the ‘7th Sea’ RPG is a very forgiving system that lends itself very well to ‘seat-of-the-pants, roll-yer-dice-and-pray’ refereeing (which I like). To that end, when Players roll very well, I don’t just say “You do XXXX damage” or “You easily dodge the bullet.” A much more vivid description is called for.
For VERY good rolls, I might even ask the Player what he would LIKE to have happen (Ian G got a lot of practice at this), which would then be taken under consideration when I provided the results.
For those incredibly BAD rolls (like here), it is more complicated. Some GMs would have taken the opportunity to chop Ian G’s Character into minestrone. But my own GMing approach (complemented by ‘7th Sea’) is that Characters (usually) do not die – unless they do something unforgivably stupid. You cannot have decent swashbuckling without comedy and that is what I go for.
Rather than a Character getting killed or permanently maimed by a run of sheer bad luck, something more… “interesting” happens. “You leap… and totally miss the window ledge, smack your face into the wall, and tumble thirty feet into the cobbled street below. Luckily, that big heap of manure was there to break most of your fall…”
I Have no specific system for this; I just take a look at the general circumstances and ask myself what COULD happen. My Players love it, and the results of these fumbles are as much a part of group folklore as what happens when things go right. If not more so.
Admittedly, I was more than a little suspicious of the sort of results Ian G frequently got. Enough to rule that all dice rolls (not just his, mind you) had to be witnessed by either me or at least two other Players. It didn’t help. Finally, I just learned to go with it by keeping skill resolutions well-compartmented –for example, he might make a massive roll to figure out that an NPC was definitely hiding something, but that didn’t mean he automatically knew what it was.
That Ian G always did his best to NOT overshadow fellow party members helped immensely – everybody got to do kewl stuff and have fun, and that is what RPGing is all about, really.
About The Authors
Ian Gray resides in Sydney Australia. He has been roleplaying for 25 years, usually on a weekly basis, and often in Mike Bourke’s campaigns. From time to time he has GM’d but is that rarest of breeds, a person who can GM but is a player at heart. He has played many systems over the years including Tales of the floating Vagabond, Legend of the five rings, Star Wars, D&D, Hero System, GURPS, Traveller, Werewolf, Vampire, Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay, and many many more. Over the last couple of years he has been dirtying his hands with game design and is currently eyeing the idea of module design. Ian has a number of guest posts coming up here at Campaign Mastery over the next few months.
Ian Mackinder has been gaming for longer than he cares to remember – almost as long as Mike Bourke has. He usually has a campaign underway, but is just as comfortable as a player. In his many years as a GM, he has run Star Trek, Traveller, 7th Sea, a Klingons campaign, and many others, often for years at a stretch. You can read more about him at his ‘About Me’ Page. Ian has popped up here at Campaign Mastery a time or two previously, posting a comment in response to Mike’s post ‘My Biggest Mistakes: Magneto’s Maze – My B. A. Felton Moment‘ for example.
Mike is very happy to call both these guys friends.
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August 1st, 2011 at 8:09 am
Sorry, I just don’t believe it. Somebody put your dice in the oven or something.
August 1st, 2011 at 8:26 am
No oven at the location, and dice from several different people were used in an attempt to beat the hoodoo! It really happened!
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August 1st, 2011 at 9:40 am
The odds of those particular rolls is 0.1^235 (one-tenth to the 235th power).
You sure you weren’t stuck in a Shakespearean play by accident?
August 1st, 2011 at 11:21 am
That…is fabulous. I love the GM’s response. And somebody beat me to the odds. ;)
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August 1st, 2011 at 11:53 am
I guess the ultimate lesson is that when there are probabilities involved, the unlikely is inevitable, eventually. And you had better be ready for it when it does…
August 1st, 2011 at 1:14 pm
I don’t believe this either. The probabilities are just too high against.
That said, back in the 80s we were playing Ghostbusters and were way over our heads. I got lucky on a regular attack roll with a 00 on the percentile dice used for the attack, but realized that our only hope for my next move was to “cross the streams” per the movie. Now, the game’s mechanics for this involved two 1% rolls. That’s right, I needed to roll 00 twice. And I did. That alone was a one-in-a-million event. The caveat is that these were the old dice like those in the picture and they might have been weighted toward rolling zeroes. On the other hand, those were the only 00s that session.
One in a million events for a game played regularly by 10 million or so at the time are going to happen often enough to make several stories like that plausible. But the numbers you’re talking about are another thing entirely.
August 1st, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Fun story, and I love it when luck shines down upon you or kicks you in the shin during a particularly dramatic point in the game.
@ Rob Crawford
You’re correct on those odds (ignoring the three rolls of two), but you mustn’t forget a key concept of probability; For those 230+ rolls he had to roll *something,* meaning whatever he might have rolled otherwise, in that exact combination, had the exact same extremely low probability of happening.
Take the following groups of ten rolls (written in order):
1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 9, 1
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
7, 8, 2, 10, 1, 7, 5, 3, 2, 4
They may seem like one is more random, or one more likely than the other, but they all have the probability of 0.1^10 of happening; just because us humans can see patterns, doesn’t mean that a certain set combination of outcomes is more or less improbable.
Nevertheless, I iterate; fun story, and it’s a blast (maybe I’m a wee bit masochistic?) when things like that happen–as long as they don’t go too far.
August 1st, 2011 at 6:38 pm
Wow. They are some really bad rolls. I have never seen anything on that scale before, though I have had a “darkest day” in one of my games.
PCs were infiltrating a enemy factory, they passed the fence with ease and where stealthily moving in to take down the guards… But then all 6 players rolled critical fails. All of them.
Needless to say the guards spotted them, and because it was so bad, I ruled that the guards actually got the drop on the PCs, taking them completely by surprise. PCs rolled their defences (since they couldn’t attack in the surprise round).
They got critical fails again (except one who got a 2). There where moans and groans and laughs all round the table. I ruled that the guards took all of them down in one shot each (except the guy who got a 2, he needed two shots). Everyone woke up in chains in the dungeon wondering how the hell that happened.
Still comes up today, years later.
August 2nd, 2011 at 12:01 am
Nex Terren, because order doesn’t matter, there are actually many more ways to get 7, 8, 2, 10, 1, 7, 5, 3, 2, 4 than 1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1. Like how you can only get three heads in three coins one way, but you can get two heads by flipping HHT, HTH, THH.
August 2nd, 2011 at 12:05 am
Another example from Ian G’s run of bad luck, which again shows how really wild stuff can come out of very minor beginnings ….
(Hey, if you gotta publicly humiliate someone, do it properly ;) )
Big pirate-y boarding action – cutlasses, rope-swinging, crowded ship’s deck, the full deal. Ian G’s character swings his sword at some poor low-end mook and (big surprise) makes a positively outrageous ‘to hit’ roll.
Unsurprisngly, I rule that the mook is extremely dead. I also rule (feeling a tad vindictive just then) that the sheer overkill of this strike was enough that Ian G’s sword is now firmly stuck pointfirst in the ship’s deck. To extract the sword and carry on then, as part of his next action, Ian G’s character will have to make a simple Strength roll (3d10 for a total of 10 or better).
Just a little thing, added detail for the Big Brawl. Didn’t expect much to come of it. The sword was extremely valuable (being made of Dracheneisen), so I knew Ian G would NOT just abandon it, so ….
It got good, no other way to describe it. Despite repeated tries, his character simply Vould Not Make That Roll. Think about the overall scene for a minute. Big shipboarding action with all the trimmings. This fancy sword stuck in the deck, w-a-y out in the middle of all the action, and the owner of this sword alternating between dodging enemies and trying to yank the sword out.
He just could NOT make that roll. I even spotted him a couple of extra dice (out of pity) after the first few tries, figuring that he had to at least be loosening the damn thing but, alas, No.
Ian G then put those extra dice to good use by actually FUMBLING. Twice. I felt even more pity and ruled that he had slipped, smacked the sword’s pommel with his chest and driven it a bit deeper into the deck. If I had not felt pity, then we might have been talking a hernia for his character or breakage of his sword – but I am a nice guy. :D
Might add, many accusations from Ian G during all this as regards whatever voodoo I must have done to his dice. Be that as it may. Heheheheh.
EVENTUALLY (about halfway thought the battle), he successfully extracted his sword (to loud cheers from the rest of the party). “Normal” combat was resumed.
Once again, I suppose I could have been really nasty. Then again, what I could have done would not have compared to what he was doing to himself with those horrible dice-rolls. Great stuff.
August 2nd, 2011 at 2:12 am
I loved that sword!
August 2nd, 2011 at 2:13 am
Besides Sidhe blades don’t grow on trees you know.
August 2nd, 2011 at 5:05 am
For those who don’t care about the math, feel free to do a tl;dr on this comment and jump to the last paragraph.
@ Noumenon
Okay, yes, I admit you’re half right and I did make a mistake. Order doesn’t matter so the idea of P^n doesn’t carry over. HOWEVER the probability of events still carries over. =P
As to order: You could roll “1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1” or “1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1” or “1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1.” Each time there I just rearranged the 1s. It’s just less obvious than rearranging members where we can see the difference, such as if I rearrange the order of “6, 2, 5, 1, 4, 3” to “1, 6, 4, 2, 5, 3.” Each of those five sets I listed have a list of 6 outcomes, each member having the same likelihood of occurring, and thus each of the five lists have the same probability.
Technically speaking, we want the formula for a combination, not a permutation, and that formula is…
C(N over n) = (N!)/(n!(N-n)!)
Where C(N over n) is the P, probability (what we’re gunnin’ for), N is the total possible outcomes (in our case 10) and n is the selected number of occurrences. The ! denotes factorial (such as 3 factorial would be 3*2*1, 4 factorial would be 4*3*2*1, and so on).
You can try it out for yourself, but any predetermined list of numbers you come up with, no matter how random they may seem; at the end of the day ANY list of outcomes, as long as the list has the same number of outcomes (in the author’s case, 235 rolls composed of 232 of those nasty 1s). After all the number of sides on those dice won’t change (N=10), and since we’re keeping the number of rolls consistent to 235 number of rolls will be the same (n=235) and so the formula will remain *exactly* the same for any list of lists, no matter how much pattern there may *seem* to be.
Ian M, that’s an awesome story; the GM in me is half tempted to engineer something like that into my games… Can’t say that I’ve had something quite that fun happen at the sessions I’ve been part of. Closest I can come is an instance of our resident min-maxer who introduced a sharpshooting rogue that managed to create and then maintain a hit ratio decidedly worse worse than anyone in the party until he eventually wandered off, attempted to solo a battle, and killed himself with his cursed (electronic) dice (and a dose of poor judgement).
August 2nd, 2011 at 5:21 am
It’s nice to know that my bad luck can occassionaly serve a higher purpose. :D
August 2nd, 2011 at 7:45 am
@ Nex Terren.
It isn’t something one can have proper in-game rules for, IMO. Really, it all comes down to trying to make combat more than just number-crunching.
Basically, I consider the surroundings / situation; make a few rolls behind my screen (to determine the degree/extent of fumble effects, and in which direction it all happens ;) ), then just ad-lib from there.
August 2nd, 2011 at 7:58 am
[…] When Good Dice Turn Bad: A Lesson In The Improbable (campaignmastery.com) […]
August 2nd, 2011 at 7:59 am
Wow, now that is an impressive run of bad luck there. I am the type that usually rolls REAL well on things that don’t matter, and above average on rolls that do matter but are not critical, but come the one critical dice roll of the session I roll a 1. This is every session though, so that problem went away once we all agreed that I should not be allowed to do any plot-critical rolls.
Although I remember one time, just a few months ago actually, I had an entire session (D&D 4e game) where half my to-hit rolls were 1’s, and the other half were exactly 1 less then I needed to hit. That session had 3 fights, and they all just got progressively worse. If y’all decide to read on, keep in mind that my character was the main damage dealer of the party and had such high to-hit modifiers that I almost never missed.
In the 1st fight things were not so bad since it was against random weak mooks that the rest of the party downed in roughly 3 rounds. No one really noticed or cared that I wasn’t hitting anything.
In the 2nd fight, which lasted roughly 30 rounds (it was one of those “wave” fights where the enemies just kept coming), I kept rolling 5’s against the monster I needed to roll a 6 or higher to hit. One of the other players noticed this and purposely risked his character’s life just to flank with me. Of course as soon as I got the +2 bonus and needed to roll a 4 or higher to hit, all my rolls until the other PC killed the monster were no higher than 3’s. The rest of the fight just kept repeating the previous flanking incident. To add salt to the wound, half of the attacks that hit me were criticals. If not for my self-regeneration and high AC (figures I would be saved by something that doesn’t require me rolling dice) it probably would have been the end of me.
And then the boss fight… We were probably not supposed to fight this thing, since it was obviously well above our level and we could not seem to land a hit on it more than 1/5 of the time, but we tried anyway. After the other players had a run of good luck and were able to reduce it’s AC (one of them flanking with me, the other used an AC-dropping attack) to where I could hit on an 11 or higher, I decided maybe my luck would turn too. It was all up to me now, this is what the rest of the party was trying to set up. Over the next 2 rounds I blew all my dailies, encounter powers, and action point and did 4 attacks per round. Sure enough my luck did change, as not a single roll was 1 less than what I needed to get. I rolled nothing higher than a 5. The DM ruled that the boss let us live because he had not laughed that hard in ages and was thus in a good mood.
The real killer is that up until that incident my character had quite the reputation of being an efficient killer/mercenary…
August 3rd, 2011 at 5:22 am
Make way, mathematician coming through… :P
A key principle of probability is that you need to look at independent events independently. Rolling 1d10 and getting a 1 is a 1 in 10 chance, regardless of how many 1s were rolled before, and this never really changes in principle (specific factors may apply however which I will discuss later). This means that any specific outcome of a set number of rolls is always the same, as others have described above. Generally, probability is calculated using a large sample of these sets of rolls, using a statistical average. If order is important, the answer is easy, since each outcome is unique, but if the order is irrelevant, the outcomes are combined into totals (the latter being the case for working out probabilities for success in 7th Sea based on just stats). None of this, however, changes the fact that an individual dice roll is still 1 in 10 of coming up any single number, and you only get to roll it once.
When people say “what are the chances of that happening?” about a previous event, the answer is “1 in 1” because it just happened. If they are asking the chances of the next event, you ignore any previous events, they have already happened and will be 1 in 1, so he probabilitiy is only for specific forthcoming events, such as the next die roll. If it’s for an entire sequence of upcoming events, like rolling 10 1’s in a row, then you get to use the complex maths that says it’s 1 in 10^10. It’s unlikely given all the other rolls that could have come out, but a roll had to be made, and the roll was only 1 in 10.
I mentioned there were other possible factors which could affect probability. You might find it interesting to know that certain mathematicians and physicists take simulationism to the next level, and almost turn it into a religion, referred to as Newtonianism, which is the belief that you can predict everything in the universe if you know all the variables. They assert that probability is just a simplification of unknown variables, and that discovering these variables will allow them to essentially predict the future. They see this basically as the evolution of human pattern recognition, but take this to the level of quantum mechanics where it get’s seriously funky.
According to such Newtonians, throwing a die is way more complex than a 1 in 10 chance of any outcome. They assert that this probability can be manipulated in many ways, from the material the dice are made from, to air resistance, to the style of throwing, and how much the dice bounce off of each other. Whether you use a dice cup, or throw by hand, and what numbers are facing upwards when you pick up the dice at the start of your throw are all relevant apparently. Gamers have a tendency to use the same dice repeatedly, which means they can accumulate all sorts of oils, grime, and stuff on their surfaces, especially in their numbers and spots, which may have accounted for the bad luck since ‘1’ would have the least area to accumulate this sort of stuff. Casino dice are specifically precision engineered to be balanced so that their sides and spots are taken into account with crisp edges, which is why they are so expensive? They wear down quickly and need to be replaced often. Other dice are rarely made to this degree of precision, but then, when millions of dollars are at stake on a dice roll, these things matter…
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August 3rd, 2011 at 6:06 am
Probability can be described as a measurement of the state of ignorance as to the outcome of an event. Of course, once an event has just occurred, there is NO ignorance as to the outcome of the event for anyone who was present (understanding or appreciating the significance of an event can be an entirely different proposition, but that’s neither here nor there.
When you roll ten dice in succession and talk about the probability of the result, or in this case, the improbability, it can generally be taken as read that we are talking about the likelyhood of an outcome from a perspective of total ignorance. What were the odds that were beaten in order to achieve that result, is what we are really asking, when such questions are raised.
So, what are the odds that of 235 d10 rolled, 232 of them would be ones – and what is the probability that the other three dice would yield 2 twos and a three? As each die is rolled, the theoretically ideal chance of getting a 1 is obviously 0.1, regardless of what had been rolled before it. But when looked at collectively, the chance that both d10s would come up ones when two are rolled is 1 in 100 (because there are 99 other combinations of results); when three are rolled, the chance is 1 in 1000; and so on. So the odds of 232 d10s rolling 1s is 1 in 10^232. It gets more complicated from there because we talking about a subset of the total rolls made, and then limiting the outcomes of the total set that are not part of that subset.
What I would be interested in, and what I think Ian was interested in, was not a numeric value for exactly how improbable the sequence of events was prior to its occurance, but what other possible events would be equally improbable. Can we put a scale on it?
For example, I once read that the probability, given all the right conditions, of life emerging spontaniously from a bunch of amino acids AT ANY GIVEN MILLISECOND and at one specific place was 1 in 10^64. Maintain those conditions for long enough, of course, and over a large enough area (in a large enough volume?) and sooner or later that 1 in 10^64 will come up. (NB: I have no idea how accurate these numbers are!)
August 3rd, 2011 at 6:05 am
… And that is why I usually leave the maths to Mike B. He LIKES that stuff.
August 3rd, 2011 at 6:18 am
Indeed Mike. According to all probability, the chances of human civilization making a manned spaceflight to the moon is like winning every lottery jackpot in a row for a 1,000 years – yet we’ve done it. That’s the point. You don’t expect it to be possible – and you wouldn’t really put money on that outcome if you were a wise gambler, but it has already happened.
The odds of one specific outcome might be one in a million, but each of those specific outcomes is one in a million, so what you are really asking is what are the odds of that specific outcome versus any other outcome. That’s what makes it seem so much like a long shot. Yet, one of those outcomes has to happen, it’s just a case of which of those million to one chances is going to happen. That is what probability is all about.
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August 3rd, 2011 at 7:12 am
And that brings us back to the point of the article – which is that GMs should think about the way they handle failed attempts by characters to do something in their RPGs, because you never know when that technique will be put to the ultimate test.
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August 3rd, 2011 at 8:10 am
Stuff happens. Be ready for it when it does.
August 3rd, 2011 at 8:54 am
Well, the chances of rolling a 1 on a ten-sider are 1 in 10… ;)
Da’ Vane recently posted..What’s Up With the Updates?
August 3rd, 2011 at 4:26 pm
I believe the focus on the maths and whether or not people beleive the event occurred or not is overshadowing the point of the article, which was to point out that bad luck should not get in the way of enjoyment of a game and that in fact with a bit of creativity and the right frame of mind it can actually enrich a game.
August 4th, 2011 at 3:45 am
I had an 8th level halfing rogue meet his ignominious end at the “hands” of a gelatinous cube once. Milo was my favorite pc of all time. He and I had been together since level 1, and had seen some good and bad times.
Milo had mostly been lucky with the dice, managing some spectacular results that he shouldn’t have, but this day was not his day. The party is doing some dungeon crawling with Milo pulling up the rear. The rest of the party gets involved with some skeletons, when a gelatinous cube comes out of a side passage and Milo is required to make a Dex roll to get out of the way.
He rolls a 1 on that d20 and ends up on his back. The gelatinous cube rolls a 20 for the attack. Milo rolls a 1 on the next roll to get out of the grips of the cube, and does this two more times.
BTW, I love 7th Sea–GM’d for a long time and am trying to get back into GMing it again. If anybody reading this is interested in joining a Google+ hangout campaign or session head on over there and add everybody who’s commented in this post to a 7th Sea circle.
https://plus.google.com/117734260411963901771/posts/dy7vTkpeREM
August 4th, 2011 at 3:51 am
The odds of this happening (with correct dice) 4.7 × 10^228
That is approximately the odds of winning the lottery 32 times in a row.
August 4th, 2011 at 5:54 am
“Some people, you just caint reach.” ;)
August 4th, 2011 at 6:15 am
@Ian G: On the contrary – the maths to work out the odds of the event occurring again are overshadowing the article. It’s a long shot and you wouldn’t bet on it, but there is normally this:
Once you’ve smacked into that window frame and everything starts going wrong, it normally just goes downhill from there, because more dice are rolled, and a bad situation just gets worse and worse, and requires some pretty good luck to get out of.
This is standard for most actions in most systems. Take a simple Climb check in D20 – you fail the check and you are falling. Suddenly, you are faced with much harder Climb checks to catch yourself while falling. It’s a chance, but if you failed the initial Climb check, there’s a high chance you’ll fail that higher Climb check too. From there it’s saves and other rolls in the hope of avoiding dismal failure – and a prayer to the gods that the GM is going to be lenient and forgive all the times you’ve been gloating about your invincibility and place a convenient manure cart somewhere to soften the landing…
It doesn’t take a lot of skill to realise that bad luck is only a dice roll away, and that part of the maths IS important. The entire sequence may seem improbable, but a lot of those rolls most likely occurred simply because the dice and the adventure was going bad, and an otherwise simple skirmish got more complex.
It’s more like a computer program where you need to roll 6+ on a d10 to end the program or it continues and repeats the roll. Continue to roll low, and you make more rolls, and those low rolls are counted. But a single high roll ends the sequence. That does make the maths a lot more complicated, especially since it means high rolls aren’t counted as much as low rolls in the statistics. But regardless, the chance of bad luck is still technically based on a single roll of the die, and that’s what should be taken into consideration.
For what it’s worth, the formula for this modified algorithm isn’t easy to remember, and I do not know it off the top of my head, but I have studied it – I got especially good results on probability studies for mathematics: You’d never guess I was a games designer!
Da’ Vane recently posted..What’s Up With the Updates?
August 6th, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Mike wrote: So the odds of 232 d10s rolling 1s is 1 in 10^232.
So, if all 6 billion people on the earth each began rolling 235 10-siders at a time, every second, it would take about 5*10^214 yrs (or roughly 10 times the proposed aged of the earth) to feel that this event is likely to happen at least once.
That’s a little less likely an occurence than I like to take someone’s word as having happened. ;-)
August 7th, 2011 at 7:19 am
@Ivellios: Actually, it was Yocewyn who wrote that.
@Da’Vane – well said.
August 7th, 2011 at 6:01 am
@Ivellios: Indeed, given the nature of probability. Of course, this assumes that you get a result of every possible combination of outcomes and the sequence repeats. You could do this experiment and discover that the first two attempts do actually all come out as required right at the start. The formula to work out whether something repeats is also different, and statistical analysis (by computers) does multiple copies of the experiment to see how long before you repeat something, and the number of iterations is measured as a variable.
The stated odds are that someone will roll 232 d10s and roll all 1s on their very next throw. But, the odds of something that is possible happening tends towards 1 the longer you keep trying, and depends whether or not the results are independent and change the probability for future outcomes – i.e. if once an option is rolled it is no longer to get that option again.
However, of even more relevance is that because of the long odds on this outcome, this outcome is remembered and turned into a story, just as the game itself was turned into a story. This is an anecdote – the tale of “when good dice went bad” for a group of people. The story itself shares ideas which is why it’s made into a story, and is why storytelling remains one of humanity’s greatest teaching methods. Everything we do, say, and think tends to end up as a story, even if most of them aren’t very exciting, like the epic ballad of the “day I went to work and nothing happened” or the saga “the day you went grocery shopping and decided to try that new yoghurt”. It’s a way we make patterns out of things, assigning cause and effect, and probability to increase our understanding and make such things easier to share with others.
In the end, some people rolled a lot of 1s despite the odds, and it turned into an epic story. One which we’re all reading here. That’s mostly what roleplaying games are about – taking patterns and creating stories. In essence, they are games about creating stories, and a training aid to increase our ability to create stories and relate them to others. It allows us to work on some very important skills that define us as human.
Da’ Vane recently posted..What’s Up With the Updates?
August 8th, 2011 at 5:02 am
[…] dice are cursed. And my daughters have fallen prey to this problem. So when I saw Ian Gray & Ian Mackinder’s article “When Good Dice Turn Bad” at Campaign Maste…, I identified with their story so well that it might as well have happened in any of my own […]
August 19th, 2011 at 11:08 am
[…] When Good Dice Turn Bad: A Lesson In The Improbable (campaignmastery.com) AKPC_IDS += "1370,";Popularity: unranked [?] This entry was posted in GMing, Musings and tagged blogs, campaign mastery, favorite blogs. Bookmark the permalink. ← From the Basement: Castle Falkenstein […]
September 28th, 2011 at 9:44 am
Well I have not seen an event quite that bad, but I have seen events of luck which were extraordinarily improbable, my worst story, the one that circles my gaming table did not involve a single players incredibly bad luck, but 6 players incredibly bad luck combined with the Gm’s incredibly good luck. This was while playing VtM and involved not one but 3 players (including myself) who botched their combat rolls 5 times in a row, each. Mean while the other 3 players simply could not hit, at all AND the GM was rolling 10’s, in mass. In the end 1 10th generation assamite TPK’d us, 2 of us were essentially combat designed characters of 7& 8th generation. I remember when, with half the party down I finally closed with him and hit, I was specialized in my weapon, so I rerolled my 10s…. a smile crept over my face, I gathered my dice ( Sword + ridiculous str+ specialised in sword = dead vampires) 18 of them…. I rolled, 10 1’s…. 10!, I botched my damage roll. 5 minutes later, the entire group was dead.
It wasn’t rolling 232 1’s, but the chances of multiple people rolling that many times and getting more 1’s than 6,7,8,9,10’s…. well it does stagger the mind.
May 20th, 2014 at 12:45 am
[…] of luck turning sour, as I got both he and the referee concerned (the other Ian) to describe in When Good Dice Turn Bad: A Lesson In The Improbable. Some people still don’t believe this happened, but I was there, and know […]
January 9th, 2016 at 7:11 pm
[…] dice are cursed. And my daughters have fallen prey to this problem. So when I saw Ian Gray & Ian Mackinder’s article “When Good Dice Turn Bad” at Campaign Maste…, I identified with their story so well that it might as well have happened in any of my own […]