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	<title>
	Comments on: We Interrupt Our Regular Programming 3: Cancel My Game?	</title>
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	<link>https://www.campaignmastery.com/blog/we-interrupt-our-regular-programming/</link>
	<description>Expert advice on creating and running exceptional campaigns. Winner,&#160;Silver&#160;Ennie 2016 for Best RPG Blog!</description>
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		<title>
		By: Mike Bourke		</title>
		<link>https://www.campaignmastery.com/blog/we-interrupt-our-regular-programming/comment-page-1/#comment-166409</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Bourke]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 15:28:55 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[You may be right, Loz, but with so little known about the actual contagion rate and the dangers posed by intermediary objects conveying the infection, I defined &#039;contact&#039; as something a lot more casual than you&#039;re probably thinking of.

For example, being on the same bus with someone meant that everyone on the bus at the same time - and probably some more besides - got counted. And anyone who had sat in that seat earlier in the day. A cashier, taking money from a customer and making change, counts - and a lot of them would do that with more than 100 people a day.

As I said repeatedly, this deliberately based the decision on a worst-case set of calculations. The fact that the results obtained line up with those deriving from the population ratios technique (also using worst-case assumptions) suggests that it is at least reasonable for a back-of-the-envelope calculation upon which to base a decision.

I also assume in those calculations that every possible encounter with Covid-19 results in infection, and we both &lt;em&gt;know&lt;/em&gt; better than that. It might be 10% or even less.

Thanks for keeping me on my toes, though, especially on something as important as this.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You may be right, Loz, but with so little known about the actual contagion rate and the dangers posed by intermediary objects conveying the infection, I defined &#8216;contact&#8217; as something a lot more casual than you&#8217;re probably thinking of.</p>
<p>For example, being on the same bus with someone meant that everyone on the bus at the same time &#8211; and probably some more besides &#8211; got counted. And anyone who had sat in that seat earlier in the day. A cashier, taking money from a customer and making change, counts &#8211; and a lot of them would do that with more than 100 people a day.</p>
<p>As I said repeatedly, this deliberately based the decision on a worst-case set of calculations. The fact that the results obtained line up with those deriving from the population ratios technique (also using worst-case assumptions) suggests that it is at least reasonable for a back-of-the-envelope calculation upon which to base a decision.</p>
<p>I also assume in those calculations that every possible encounter with Covid-19 results in infection, and we both <em>know</em> better than that. It might be 10% or even less.</p>
<p>Thanks for keeping me on my toes, though, especially on something as important as this.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Loz		</title>
		<link>https://www.campaignmastery.com/blog/we-interrupt-our-regular-programming/comment-page-1/#comment-166406</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Loz]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2020 07:21:06 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Those baseline numbers are too high: 10 puts you into the category of &quot;super spreader&quot;.
100 would be someone in the service industry, croosing paths with dozens and dozens of customers. Not representative of the average person.

BUT CoViD-no19 is already out there, so better to take precautions.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those baseline numbers are too high: 10 puts you into the category of &#8220;super spreader&#8221;.<br />
100 would be someone in the service industry, croosing paths with dozens and dozens of customers. Not representative of the average person.</p>
<p>BUT CoViD-no19 is already out there, so better to take precautions.</p>
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